OGT Owl Group Trading by Dr. Ken Long
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Trading Concept

Z3 Super Pinch (Z3P)

Z3P occurs when the Z3 lines are squeezed to less than 1 Frog Box (FB) for intraday trading. This is a measure of abnormal squeezitude and RL10, RL30, RL90, RL270 are within pinch criteria. Quotes, sayings, and wisdom Chopping wood and carrying water The discipline of refining a craft, coming prepared each day with the right tools to perform the work of the day and repeating the work that develops the practice each and every day until it builds into an expertise. Chuck LeBeau Reasoning for using the 2x time frame to evaluate trades:  this is a heuristic we can think of systems designed to capture typical moves that unfold over a certain time frame like a swing trade that on average works over a 5 day period, plus or minus 1 or 2 so a "normal time frame" for that swing system features moves that occur in 3-7 days.  When I have a specific trade from that system that lasted 4 days from entry to exit, I want to get some sense of how well that trade captures the favorable move in that approximate time frame. Conscious Competence Learning Model Describes the typical cycle of “spiral learning”. It’s normal to move in and out of conscious awareness of your actions when learning. The feelings in each quadrant are typical and can help assess where you are. You’ll often see this spiral in effect as you climb up the Levels of Learning. As we climb the level, we want to “ lock-in” in the learning SOPs, checklists, processes, “standard work”, job aids, and flashcards help us “lock in”. Dave Landry An investment professional:  “You can’t beat the market trading stocks that have less volatility than the market’s volatility” Deming, W. Edwards Process management expert:    “Don’t tweak a system until it is under control in its current form.” Don’t Stay Wrong Too Long Recommendation to exit trade when the price is neither hitting our stops or moving in our favor in the anticipated time frame based on our framing. Hope is not a method A phrase from the US Military:  "Hope is not a method and wishes are not plans."  Don't tell me what you hope will happen, don't tell me what you wish you could do.  Instead, give me a plan that makes it happen, or exploits what may happen in a risk-managed way. Keep your powder dry and your risk measured Ken signs off all of his weekly briefings with this phrase:  In the age of muskets, soldiers kept little bags of gunpowder to use in loading their guns. If the powder got wet by falling into a river or being exposed to rain, then the soldier couldn't fight because their gun wouldn't work. When someone tells you to "keep your powder dry", they mean to make sure that you're not going to come up short in a crisis because you haven't taken care of business ahead of time. "Keep your risk measured" means that you should assess the level of risk you are taking with each trade and only take those that present a good reward: risk ratio and high probability of success. Lather, rinse, and repeat A term used when a trader demonstrates a professionally developed and well executed trade.  If the term is applied literally to the trader's system and behavior, it would result in an endless loop of perpetuating positive results for the foreseeable future. Linda Bradford Raschke “The market will do the most obvious thing in the most un-obvious manner” Mike Tyson Professional boxer:  “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face” Paul Tudor Jones Quotes from the legendary investor: "Every day I assume every position I have is wrong." "Losers average losers." "There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market." “You adapt, evolve, compete or die.” "Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked." "If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess." "The whole world is simply nothing more than a flow chart for capital." "Failure was a key element to my life’s journey." "Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt." "After a while, size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making a 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference." "I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." "At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control." "The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge." "Intellectual capital will always trump financial capital." "The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE's?"" (P/E is price to earnings ratio.)" Re-entry is the key to sanity Do not hesitate to take a profit preservation exit.  If price action indicates that you exited prematurely, re-renter on the next pullback followed by a universal entry signal. Robert Gardner “I'd rather be outside wishing I was in than inside wishing I was out”